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Gray Power: Will It Trump Race and the Youth Vote?

By Jeralyn

CBS News examines the age factor in the Democratic presidential race. Older voters favor Hillary, younger voters favor Obama. African-American voters are expected to favor Obama.

Younger voters turned out in Iowa and African American voters will turn out in South Carolina. But, CBS says, that may not be true for Tsunami Tuesday and that could work against Obama.

Obama’s weak performance so far among older voters substantially increases the odds against him scoring big victories in the slew of states voting on February 5th, "Super Duper Tuesday."

By the numbers: [More...]

In Iowa, Clinton grabbed 45 percent of the 65 and up while Obama took just 18 percent. In New Hampshire, she won 48 percent to 32 percent. Among voters 60 and older in Nevada, Clinton mopped up with a stunning 60 percent to Obama’s 31 percent.

Nationally, Clinton led Obama 44 percent to 18 percent among voters over 65 in a CBS New/The New York Times poll taken January 9-12.

CBS compares the voter turnout among young and older voters:

Voters over 65 were a solid 22 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in Iowa.

But in Nevada, a dazzling 36 percent of the primary voters were over 60. Turnout for the caucuses was huge. Nearly a third of the state’s registered Democrats participated. All Democrats, even the over-65 crowd, are unusually motivated this year - not just the young voters Obama has energized.

I think large numbers of younger voters will turn out on Feb. 5. Until then, I don't think we know the effect of the gray power vote and the youth vote, if it materializes, could trump it. Not to the CBS writer, who says:

Whatever the reasons, the pattern of voting behavior so far is clear. It is a pattern that could be a key to making Hillary Clinton the first female presidential nominee in American history.

Which do you think will have the biggest impact, age, race or gender? Here's how I see it stacking up right now for Democratic voters (I'm excluding Independents):

Young Voters: Obama
Older voters: Hillary
Women voters: Hillary
African American voters: Obama
Latino voters: Hillary
Change voters: Obama
Experience voters: Hillary

As for other groups:

Blue Collar/Middle Class: Hillary
Wealthier, More Educated Voters: Obama

Bottom line: I think it's way too soon to say who comes out ahead with all these variables.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on January 20, 2008 (boomark / email).