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Could tough three-strikes laws increase crime?

By Douglas A. Berman

Thanks to this post at Volokh, I found this notable new paper from a Harvard researcher titled "I'd Rather Be Hanged for a Sheep than a Lamb: The Unintended Consequences of 'Three-Strikes' Laws."   Here is the abstract:Strong sentences are common "tough on crime" tool used to reduce the incentives for individuals to participate in criminal activity. However, the design of such policies often ignores other margins along which individuals interested in participating in crime may adjust. I use California's Three Strikes law to identify several effects of a large increase in the penalty for a broad set of crimes. Using criminal records data, I estimate that Three Strikes reduced participation in criminal activity by 20 percent for second-strike eligible offenders and a 28 percent decline for third-strike eligible offenders...continue to full post

Full post as published by Sentencing Law and Policy on March 16, 2008 (boomark / email).