Legal Commentary

AP-Ipsos Poll on Race and the Election: Race Could Hurt Obama

By Jeralyn

How big a role will race play in the presidential election? Via an AP-Ipsos poll out today:

According to the poll released Saturday, a little over one-third of white Democrats and independents agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, and they are less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't hold such views.

....statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice.

Full poll results are here (pdf.) AP analysis is here. [More..] Al Giordano disputes the poll's findings and blasts a particular AP journalist with accusations you would never see on this site, but I'm including the link for its numbers analysis.

Nate Silver of 538 calls the Bradley Effect a continued myth and adds his thoughts on the AP poll.

Oliver Willis responds here with an uplifting photo of Obama and quote by JFK.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on September 20, 2008 (boomark / email).