Legal Commentary

Susq. PA Poll: Close Race

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

In a poll conducted entirely before BitterGate (the poll was conducted from April 6-10), the Susquehanna Univ. PA poll shows a close race with a very high number of undecideds - Clinton 40, Obama 37, Undecided 23. This is a large drop for Clinton from a poll from a month earlier when she led by 14. That said, even without taking into account BitterGate, this poll seems incredibly suspect to me. I'll explain on the flip:

This poll has Obama winning African Americans by only 50-30 but still within 3. That is simply impossible. Let's do our SUSA analysis again.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, 3 out of 4 A-A undecideds break for Obama, giving him a 65-35 win among A-As, a preposterous result. Obama will win AT LEAST 85% of A-As. This translates, assuming the 14% A-A percentage of the vote that SUSA finds, that A-As will deliver 9% of the TOTAL vote to Obama 9% and 4.5% to Hillary.

Extrapolating from there, assuming an overall 4 point Clinton lead, we can then assume that this polls has Clinton winning whites relatively narrowly - by less than 10. Thus delivering Obama 39% of the total vote. 39% plus 9% equals 48% for Obama and 52% for Clinton.

I believe NEITHER finding. Obama will win much more than 65% of the African American vote (he certainly must be winning by more than 3-2 now.) Clinton will win whites by more than 55-45 (this poll has her with virtually NO lead, at most a couple of points). The numbers simply do not add up, even if one assumes (the poll mentions that past primary voters break for Clinton by 7, also a ridiculously low number) high A-A voter and young voter turnout.

Bottom line, Obama may be down 3, but this poll does not convince me that that is true. I simply do not believe its internals. They strike me as completely not credible. Obama winning A-As 90-10, a 20% A-A vote and Obama capturing 35% of the white vote is the formula for Obama being within 4. Not the results of this poll.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on April 14, 2008 (boomark / email).