Legal Commentary

More Signs Of A Non-Transformative Election

By Big Tent Democrat

The Presidential electoral map is looking more an more like the Blue/Red split we have become accustomed to these past 8 years. The latest evidence of this is the PPP MO poll:

McCain’s advantage is 50-40, a seven point increase from PPP’s July poll, which showed him leading by just three points. Obama’s biggest issue is with white voters, who support McCain by a 56-35 margin. “There aren’t enough black voters in Missouri for Barack Obama to win it if he can’t make things more competitive among white voters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That’s going to be his challenge if he wants to have any chance at winning the state.”

Obama's chances of changing the Red/Blue dynamic are best in Colorado (9 EVs), Virginia (13 EVs) and Nevada (5 EVs). Iowa and New Mexico (12 EVs combined) have swung back and forth in the last 2 elections and Obama looks pretty good in those 2 states. That's 39 electoral votes total from those 5 states. Obama needs 18 more than Kerry to win the Presidency, so if he wins Iowa and New Mexico and holds the Kerry states, then he only needs only one of VA or CO (NM gets him to a 269-269 tie). Of course, Florida (27 EVs) or Ohio (20 EVs) alone would do the trick, but they seem a second thought for the Obama campaign.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on August 20, 2008 (boomark / email).