Legal Commentary

Oregon Primary May 20 Could Be a Close Race

By Jeralyn

The Register Guard today reports the Democratic primary in Oregon could be a close race.

Oregon’s demographics may portend a close race, said Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts. “We have strong liberal pockets like Portland and Eugene, more moderate Democrats in the suburbs, and some blue-collar and working-class Democrats who are amenable to Clinton’s campaign,” he said. “You throw it all together and it’s a fairly competitive race.”

Oregon gets 65 delegates to the DNC, 52 pledged, 12 superdelegates and 1 add-on. It has 7 electoral college votes. Barack Obama made three campaign stops in Oregon this week.

Obama, of course, dropped in on Eugene, Salem and Portland on Friday, as well as Medford on Saturday, and many assume both he and Clinton will visit again before early May, when Oregon voters will start receiving their ballots in the mail.

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In 2004, Oregon voted 52% to Kerry, 48% to Bush. In 2000, it was 47% for Gore, 46.5% for Bush. In 1996, it voted 47% for Bill Clinton, 39% for Bob Dole.

Here's the county map showing party strength. The Democrats get he Northwest portion of the state, the rest of the state leans red.

Older polls hadObama has been doing better in polling against McCain and in convincing Republicans to cross-over to vote for him. There are no recent Oregon polls.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on March 23, 2008 (boomark / email).