Legal Commentary

New Rural Battleground States Poll: Hillary Better Against McCain

By Jeralyn

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, in association with the Republican media firm Greener and Hook, recently completed a survey of rural voters in 13 battleground states, on behalf of the Center for Rural Strategies. The results:

• Hillary - McCain: tied (46% each)
• McCain - Obama: McCain by 9 (50 - 41%)

The message the Republican pollsters have for Republicans:

The competitiveness reflects the on-going national problems facing the Republican brand, as well as the deep economic anxiety that is particularly acute among rural families on one hand, balanced against doubts about Obama’s values.

Among the key findings:

A fair number of voters believe McCain, while sharing their values, is not sufficiently sensitive to their economic problems; significant numbers of rural voters indicate Obama understands their economic problems, but does not share their values.

Poll details:

It surveyed 682 respondents between May 13th and 15th, 2008 from rural parts of the battleground states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.75 at a 95 percent confidence level.

All of those polled are registered voters. 93% of them voted in 2004 and 93% say they are certain to vote in November. The remaining 7% say they will probably vote.

58% of the voters had attended some college or post-graduate school. 35% were Republican, 35% Democrat and 29% are Independent. 37% attend church every week. 89% are White, 4% Latino/Hispanic and 2% African-American. 52% are women and 48% male.

Full poll results are here (pdf); The poll memo is here (pdf).

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 20, 2008 (boomark / email).