Legal Commentary

How Hillary Would Have Done

By Big Tent Democrat

This is a silly parlor game of course but I like Poblano's post about it so I will discuss it here:

If America had woken up last Tuesday morning and magically found Hillary Clinton's name on the ballot in lieu of Barack Obama, might she have won by 11 points? Perhaps. She certainly proved herself to be an exceptionally compelling candidate, even if her execution and staffing decisions were sometimes wanting. But what would Clinton's numbers have looked like if she had actually endured ... you know ... a campaign?

More . . .

This is where the Media Darling issue becomes crucial to understanding why Obama was the better choice for Democrats in terms of electoral considerations. Poblano writes:

Would [Clinton] have managed the media as deftly as Obama did? Perhaps not.

Definitely NOT. Not only would Clinton have not been the Media darling Obama was, her candidacy would have turned John McCain into a Media Darling. Now this is not a reflection on the merits of Hillary Clinton, politician and stateswoman - it is a reflection on the state of the Media.

I think in the end, unlike Poblano, I do not think anyone can really doubt Clinton would have won the Presidency. She surely would have won Ohio and Florida more easily than Obama did. She would not have won Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana or Colorado though.

It was always clear to me that Obama had more upside potential and at the same time, carried a greater risk. He and his team ran a masterful general election campaign and he caught every political break in the book. But at the bottom of it all was the Media Darling status. Obama could withstand everything McCain and the Republicans threw at him because the Media would not accept having Obama attacked.

Going forward, I think Obama will have the same luxury in governance (unlike Bill Clinton and unlike Hillary Clinton would have had.) Because of this Obama can be bold and truly transform the political landscape for a generation. If he so chooses. For all of Hillary Clinton's admirable traits and formidable political skills (and I for one completely underestimated her on all counts), she simply would not have had the same window of opportunity that Barack Obama has. And yes, THAT is why I supported him for the Presidency. Now I think is the time to try and prod him to be the bold transformative leader that will change the political landscape for a generation.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on November 13, 2008 (boomark / email).