Academic

Does Gore Have A Better Shot Than Hillary?

By Dan Filler

I think so.  Howard Kurtz at the Washington Post notes that many pundits have written off Hillary.  But he says that he's not ready to declare the race over yet - what if Hillary scores a big win in Pennsylvania?  Fair enough, Howard, and indeed what if  national polls show Obama slipping into free fall as well?  Both of these things could happen and might throw uncommitted superdelegates into a tizzy.  But I'm not sure they'd move to Hillary; I think it's just as likely they'd switch to the Democrats' resident Nobel Laureate. 

Here's why.  Many  Democrats worry that Hillary cannot galvanize the entire Democratic base.  Among other things, her support among  African-Americans will be weaker than normal for a Democratic presidential candidate unless she runs with Obama.   And why would Obama run as the VP with a woman he beat in the primaries?  If superdelegates abandon Obama, it will be out of hard-nosed realism: a surfeit of evidence that he cannot win.  But that realistic outlook doesn't take you to Hillary - who is highly unpopular among large segments of the American population (for reasons both good and bad).  It takes you to Al Gore - quite possibly with Obama on the ticket as part of a brokered deal.  The biggest critique of any backroom dealing among superdelegates is that this process undermines democratic choices, but that argument would be softened if Obama reaches an agreement to join a Gore/Obama ticket and he asks his delegates to vote for Gore.  (Obviously, this would only happen if it appeared that Obama simply could not muster a majority for the convention.) 

I'm not saying this will happen.  Most likely, Obama will plow through these tough times - and try to stay tough through October, waiting for a McCain implosion.  But the race has gotten more and more complicated of late.  And I'm not sure that Hillary is the beneficiary of these disruptions.

(Image from BuzzFlash.)

Full post as published by The Faculty Lounge on March 24, 2008 (boomark / email).