Legal Commentary

Gallup Trad Turnout Model: Obama By 8

By Big Tent Democrat

This is a very interesting development - the Gallup Expanded and Traditional turnout models have basically converged -the traditional turnout model has Obama by 8 - 51-43 while the expanded model has Obama by 9, 52-43. Obama leads among all registered voters by 11, 52-41.

The door that McCain pollster Bill McCinturff had tried to slide in in selling McCain's chances was the idea that while turnout would be at a record high, the makeup would still resemble that of the 2004 election. Here Gallup seems to be shutting that door as well.

ABC/WaPo has stuck to its traditional voter turnout model and has been producing consistent 8 and 9 point leads for Obama. Now Gallup joins the party. Perhaps my prediction of a 6 point Obama win is too cautious.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on October 31, 2008 (boomark / email).