Immigration Law

REID: IMMIGRATION REFORM WILL BE EASY TO DEAL WITH IN THE NEXT CONGRESS

By Greg Siskind

Wow. So much for everyone saying immigration needs to be put off because the Democrats don't want to get in to a bruising fight or because the issues are too complicated. Here's what Reid said about immigration reform to the Detroit Free Press:

Q: With more Democrats in the Senate and the House and a Democrat in the White House, how do you see congressional efforts playing out on such issues as health care and immigration?

A: On immigration, there's been an agreement between (President-elect Barack) Obama and (Arizona Republican Sen. John) McCain to move forward on that. ... We'll do that. We have to get this economy stuff figured out first, so I think we'll have a shot at doing something on health care in the next Congress for sure.

Q: Will there be as much of a fight on immigration as last time?

A: We've got McCain and we've got a few others. I don't expect much of a fight at all. Now health care is going to be difficult. That's a very complicated issue. We debated at great length immigration. People understand the issues very well. We have not debated health care, so that's going to take a lot more time to do.

Frankly, I doubt Reid would speak so confidently if he was expecting a major fight from Republicans. And maybe that's because the GOP is starting to acknowledge that they're going to be a permanent opposition party if they remain the anti-immigration party. In an article in today's Politico, urban affairs professor Robert Lang has written an article entitled "Demographics shifting, but GOP isn't" where he discusses the GOP's conundrum:

But the larger issue is whether 2008 was a ?realigning election? that went deeper than the candidates or the current issues. The jury is still out as to whether Democrats can turn one sweeping victory into a generation-long dominance of the White House. A key element in a possible structural shift favoring Democrats is the changing demographics of the electorate. The U.S. is growing bigger, increasingly diverse and more cosmopolitan ? and the GOP seems on the wrong side of all these trends.

The United States is the only developed country that is projected to add lots of new residents by mid-century. In 2006, the nation?s population reached 300 million. The Census Bureau estimates that the U.S. will get to 400 million by 2039. To put this growth in perspective, consider that even China (yes, China) will not add 100 million people by that date. The U.S. will gain more new residents in the next three decades than the current population of Germany ? the largest European Union nation.

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So who are most of these new people? The quick answer is both recent immigrants and their American-born offspring. By 2043, the U.S. may be a majority minority nation. Another scenario is that a high rate of intermarriage among whites and minorities may open to question the whole notion of who is ?majority.? The bottom line for Republicans is that no matter how this population is defined, an increasing number of current minorities are voting for Democrats.

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Republicans can, of course, switch their strategy and make more direct appeals to minority voters. As recently as 2004, President George W. Bush almost won the Latino vote. But at the moment, the Republicans seem branded as the party of white people. Furthermore, much of the Republican base ? especially those listening to talk radio ? believe the U.S. is being flooded with immigrants (legal and illegal). It may be hard to pivot and embrace diversity without alienating the GOP base. By contrast, many whites in the Democratic Party are comfortable with diversity and now form a transracial coalition with minority voters.

Full post as published by Greg Siskind's Blog on November 24, 2008 (boomark / email).