Election-Campaign Law

EARLY VOTING ?EXIT POLLS?

By inelefi

You can check out the this link for a compilation of poll results based on samples of early voters. These are the National results:

National Early Voting

Fox News (11/1-11/2) (29% of sample)
Obama 48% (+1)
McCain 47%

NBC/Wall Street Journal (11/1-11/2) (30% of sample)
No breakdown of early voters. Text says: “The early voters’ views reflect to overall electorate’s.” Obama leads by 8 points, 51%-43% in the overall poll.

Diageo/Hotline (10/31/11/2) (27% of sample)
Obama 51% (+5)
McCain 46%

CBS/NYT (10/29-10/31) (20% of sample)Obama 57% (+19)McCain 38%NOTE: The Final CBS poll, taken 10/31-11/2, included 24% who had already voted, but CBS did not provide a separate breakdown of who they voted for.

Diageo/Hotline (10/30-11/1) (27% of sample)Obama 51% (+5)McCain 46%

Pew (10/30-11/1) (26% of sample)Results of already voted not reported separately

Democracy Corps (10/30-11/2) (22% of sample)Results of already voted not reported separately

ABC/Wash. Post (10/29-10/31) (16% of sample)Results of already voted not reported separately

Zogby (10/30-11/1) (?% of sample)Obama 56% (+17)McCain 39%

Gallup (10/30-11/2) (28% of sample)No data, but Gallup says the results “skew toward Obama”

Gallup (10/27-10/29) (21% of sample)Obama 55% (+15)McCain 40%

CBS/NYTimes (10/25-10/29) (17% of sample)Obama 55% (+20)McCain 35%

Fox News (10/28-10/29) (22% of sample)Obama 52% (+9)McCain 43%

Hotline/Diageo (10/27-10/29) (19% of sample) Obama 55% (+19) McCain 36%

Economist (Oct. 25-27) (23% of sample) Obama 59% (+18) McCain 41%

ABC/Wash. Post (Oct. 26-29) (11% of sample) Obama 59% (+19) McCain 40%

Harris (Oct. 20-27) (12% of sample) Obama 51% (+9) McCain 42%

Gallup (Oct. 25-28) (18% of sample) Obama 53% (+10) McCain 43%

Diageo/Hotline (Oct. 25-28) (17% of sample reports having already voted; no breakdown of how they voted.)

Pew (Oct. 23-26) A national Pew survey of roughly 1500 voters found that 15% had already voted, but did not provide a breakdown of who they voted for.

Also, here’s a memo from the Obama campaign with it’s own data breakdown for some key states, comparing 2008 early voting turnout by party with the numbers from 2004.

According to Michael McDonald, these are not “exit polls” but “simply pre-election polls conducted by various polling organizations that have large enough samples of early voters to report their support for candidates.”

Inés and Janell

Full post as published by Election Updates on November 03, 2008 (boomark / email).