Legal Commentary

More Exit Polls : Thread Two

By Big Tent Democrat

Turnout numbers - 80% White, 14% A-A.

Key exit poll findings from ABC:

Preliminary results indicate that nearly six in 10 voters are women, which if it holds in final data will be a high for Pennsylvania, though about what it's been in all Democratic primaries this year. Turnout among African-Americans could be lower than it's been overall this year; it'll take updates later tonight to see whether it does or does not exceed the Pennsylvania primary record, 17 percent in 1988 and 1984.

We know Drudge said 52-48, but here is a reminder that early exit polls have not been great, and the early exits have been pretty favorable to Obama for whatever reason. Brendan Loy reminds:

For instance:

* In New Hampshire, the "first wave" showed Obama leading by 4; he lost by 3.

* On Super Tuesday, the "first wave" had Obama winning New Mexico by 6 (he lost by 1) and losing California by just 3 (actual margin: 8). The "second wave" wasn't any more accurate: it had Obama winning Georgia by 50 (actual margin: 35), Illinois by 40 (actual margin: 32), Alabama by 22 (actual margin: 14), Delaware by 14 (actual margin: 9), Connecticut by 7 (actual margin: 4), Arizona by 6 (lost by 8), New Jersey by 5 (lost by 10), Missouri by 4 (actual margin: 1), Massachusetts by 2 (lost by 15), and losing Tennessee by 10 (actual margin: 13), New York by 14 (actual margin: 17), Oklahoma by 30 (actual margin: 23) and Arkansas by 46 (actual margin: 44). So Oklahoma and Arkansas were the only states on Super Tuesday where Obama did better than the leaked, unweighted exit polls suggested.

* On March 4, the "second wave" showed Obama winning Vermont by 34 (actual margin: 21), Texas by 2 (lost by 4), Ohio by 2 (lost by 10), and tied in Rhode Island (lost by 18).

Clinton could lose tonight or win big or who knows what. We do know these early exit polls have not been that good at telling us much.

By Big Tent Democrat

Full post as published by TalkLeft on April 22, 2008 (boomark / email).