Academic

OH, GOODY: The US May Face An Irish-Like Crisis In Just The Next Few Months. Related: Why Is Th?

By Glenn Reynolds

OH, GOODY: The US May Face An Irish-Like Crisis In Just The Next Few Months.

Related: Why Is The World Bailing Out Ireland? “The short-term reason that Britain and other major powers dread an Irish default is that their banks own a lot of Irish debt. Bondholder haircuts are nobody?s idea of a good time, and the Irish are positioned to put the high-and-tight on their former colonial oppressors but good. But the long-term reason is narrow governmental self-interest: If Ireland defaults, that is going to make borrowing a lot more expensive for every government in the world.”

UPDATE: Jim Bennett emails:

I told everybody this last summer. And now everybody’s picking up on it. Germany, not the PIIGS, needs to leave the Euro.

Yes, there are two options, neither entirely graceful. The European Central Bank can print money like a drunken sailor, flood the bond markets with ?2 trillion, and tank the euro against China?s yuan for good measure.

If the Germans refuse to accept this, they should abandon EMU at once, leaving France and southern Europe with the residual euro and the institutions of monetary union. Existing euro debt contracts would be upheld. Germany would revalue ? alone or with Finns, Dutch, etc – so holders of Bunds would enjoy a windfall gain.

Also, it may happen very quickly when it does:

Markets may well be in turmoil and the renegotiation might happen over a weekend rather than over weeks and months. It will be too late to start cobbling together a renegotiation plan then. We need to have a plan ready for that moment. Downing Street should be finalising it now.

I said that too.

Well, Jim’s a pretty perceptive guy. Just not how his whole Anglosphere idea has caught on.

Full post as published by Instapundit.com on November 22, 2010 (boomark / email).