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The Rogue Race of Rhode Island

Lincoln, R.I. -- It's the week before a momentous election, and John Loughlin is shaking hands at a strip mall. He's feeling better about his prospects than you'd expect the Republican candidate in Rhode Island's 1st congressional district to be. Last Friday, the National Republican Congressional Committee released a poll in which Loughlin tied his Democratic adversary, David Cicilline, at 41 percent among likely voters. Among the most likely voters, Loughlin led, albeit barely: 45 to 41 percent, which is within the margin of error.

Every shaken hand could be the deciding vote, but Loughlin is calmness incarnate. He strolls through the Lincoln Shopping Center in his burgundy loafers, seemingly unperturbed -- just like the man walking next to him, Sen. Scott Brown (R., Mass.). 'This race reminds me a lot of my race,' Brown tells a pack of reporters. Loughlin and Brown do have much in common -- both are unassuming Republicans who have harnessed the current political climate to give themselves a chance to win in liberal northeastern states. Brown trailed his opponent by 15 points nine days before he won an unexpected victory in January of this year; Loughlin may be a surprise champ for the GOP on November 2.

#ad#Extending across Rhode Island's northeastern arc, the 1st congressional district has been represented by Rep. Patrick Kennedy since 1995. The son of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, the incumbent won 69 percent of the vote in 2008, outperforming President Obama by four points. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the Ocean State by four to one. This district is so blue that the Cook Partisan Voting Index gives Democrats a 13-point advantage here.

But two factors attenuate the Democrats' advantage this year. First, Kennedy isn't running. In February, the incumbent announced that his life was 'taking a new direction' and that he would retire from Congress.

Second, Cicilline, the mayor of Providence, is not particularly popular. In an August poll, the Democrat posted an approval rating of only 40 percent. His support of Providence's status as a sanctuary city -- a city that refuses to enforce laws related to illegal immigration -- is out of sync with the 70 percent of Rhode Islanders who support government sanctions on employers of illegal immigrants. And last month, Cicilline admitted to mistakenly taking $20,000 in extra pay over four years. Loughlin's campaign says Cicilline is paying back the money only because he got caught.

The warning signs for Cicilline have been appearing for many months. In March 2009, the Feldman Group conducted focus groups for the mayor in anticipation of a run for higher office. The summary memo, obtained by Loughlin's advisers and shared with National Review Online, reads like Cicilline's political obituary. 'Voters no longer view Cicilline as a reformer,' it says. 'They believe his brother's writing of a bad check and the firing of the city's tax collector shows that he is no different than other politicians who give their family and friends favors at taxpayer expense.'

In other words, Republicans have an opening, and Loughlin is ready to take advantage of it.

A 51-year-old state representative from Tiverton, Loughlin spent ten years as a helicopter pilot in the Rhode Island National Guard. He later joined NASA as a public-affairs officer. He served in Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1995–96 and helped train soldiers headed to Iraq at Fort Bragg, N.C., in 2003. In December 2004, he retired as a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army reserve -- ending a 26-year career in the military -- and opened Media-Rite LLC, a film- and television-production agency.

On the campaign trail, Loughlin wears his green U.S. Army jacket to remind voters of his service. But when he speaks, he's all issues, no biography. 'We want to keep promoting our message of fiscal conservatism,' he tells NRO. 'We need to repeal and replace the health-care bill and send any unused stimulus funds to the Treasury. The CBO puts out a list of budget options each year. In 2009, it identified $140 billion in savings. I think we should take a look at that.'

#page#He's not afraid to throw a punch. 'My opponent's first vote would be for Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the House,' he says. 'And his second vote would be to raise taxes.' Loughlin warns of Cicilline, 'He thinks we are one government program away from salvation. He's already come out with his own $2 billion stimulus plan.'

Loughlin says 'there's a lot to like' about the GOP's 'Pledge to America,' but he warns, 'Whenever I'm asked about the pledge or the Contract with America, I say we already have a contract with America,' pulling a pocket Constitution of his coat. 'I do support the pledge's goal to put an enumerated-powers clause in all legislation,' he adds.

#ad#And he's happy to be compared to Scott Brown, whose come-from-behind victory he hopes to repeat. With virtually no assistance from the national party, Loughlin is marching his way -- slowly, deliberately -- closer to victory. For his part, Brown is happy to oblige, reminding reporters that the 1st district is not the Kennedys' seat but the people's seat.

But when a reporter asks Loughlin if he sees himself as the next Scott Brown, the candidate, steady as ever, replies: 'I see myself as the first John Loughlin.'

-- Brian Bolduc is a William F. Buckley Jr. Fellow at the National Review Institute.

Full post as published by Bench Memos - National Review Online on October 28, 2010 (boomark / email).