Legal Commentary

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 20, 2009, Sunday

3. New Orleans Bowl, Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee, 8:30 pm

YPPSYS I ranks Middle Tennessee 42nd (rated -0.8) and Southern Miss 46th (rated -1.4), so that the ratings favor the Blue Raiders by .6 x 9 = 5.4 points. Middle Tennessee had a MOV of 8.2 as compared to the Golden Eagles 8.5, or a .3 advantage for Southern Miss, lessened by .1 through ease of schedule difficulty, so that YPPSYS II would give the Golden Eagles a razor thin .2 point advantage. The opening line favored Southern Miss by 6 points and now stands at 3.5 points.

Our call: The Golden Eagles bring a leaky pass defense into the game against a capable pass-and-run QB in Dwight Dasher, who may prove to be the difference in the football game. We call it for Middle Tennessee 27-26.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Full post as published by LawPundit on December 17, 2009 (boomark / email).