Legal Commentary

Is Hillary offering Barack the Veep slot via a press leak?

By Beldar

It's always amazed and amused me how many times, in negotiations over settling a lawsuit, my opponents will say something like this: "We'd consider paying something in the $200,000-$250,000 range" or "We'd probably take something in the $250,000-$300,000 range." When given either of these statements, I immediately discard the over or under (depending on who's to pay). In both of these instances, I probably wouldn't even bother repeating the "range" to my client, but would just say, "Their current number is $250,000."

So if I were Barack Obama today, if I were able to confirm that the "Clinton aides" referenced in this news report really were Clinton aids speaking with their candidate's knowledge and authorization, I would immediately conclude that the Veep spot on a Hillary Clinton-led ticket is now firmly on the table (at least for now; perhaps not irrevocably):

Clinton aides have privately admitted that Mr Obama would only consider such a move [i.e., "standing down" voluntarily in her favor] if offered the position of vice presidential running mate, something Mrs Clinton has always been reluctant to consider.

What an odd locution. "We admit that our opponent would only consider quitting if we gave him a guarantee on the second slot." But isn't saying that equivalent, for all practical purposes (except face-saving plausible deniability if the non-offer offer is rejected), to making the offer?

   

Should Obama seriously consider accepting such an offer? I think not, unless he's more substantially more risk-averse than I read him to be. His chances of winning the Democratic nomination outright seem better than ever. His chances of winning the general election must likewise seem very substantial. His downside risk in the former case is that he'd have to wait until 2012 or 2016 to run again ? a pretty acceptable risk, it would seem, given his age. If, as the article claims, both the Clinton and Obama camps are "scared" of running against McCain, and if he believes that they could only beat McCain via a combined "dream team" Democratic ticket, then perhaps he would conclude that he's minimizing his risks by taking a second spot behind Hillary Clinton (which she could never do, since Bill could never consent to being only a shadow Vice President). But at a time when the GOP base has still certainly not made its peace with McCain or vice versa, could this "candidate of hope" be so cowed by such early polls? And could he view what would effectively be the #3 slot (behind Bill) in a Clinton administration to be worth even as much as the proverbial warm bucket of spit?

I don't think so. This strikes me as a fairly desperate move by the Clinton campaign. It's as if, after calling the $500 all-in bet of the other last player in a winner-take-all Texas Hold'em tournament, the holder of the $600 stack, knowing that she's got only two pair (10s and 3s, with the 10s both on the board), offers to split the $1000 tournament pot 60/40 before the show-down with the other player. Yeah, she has the current lead, and yeah, 60/40 would be a pretty good compromise if the other player is really risk-averse. But would he have gone all-in without at least another pair? And isn't it likely to beat her two 3s in the hole? If he wins, thereby doubling up and gaining a 10/1 chip advantage, isn't he likely to be able to wipe her out in a few more hands anyway? Now that she's already called, why should he let her off the hook? I'd read it as nothing but a signal that she's feeling weak ? and not about beating McCain, but about beating Obama.

Full post as published by BeldarBlog on February 10, 2008 (boomark / email).