Academic

An important lesson from election 2000

By Tung Yin

I had an epiphany while talking with a colleague today, which is that Democrats run a big risk of repeating the 2000 election (minus the Supreme Court drama, let us hope) if they nominate Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama.  In 2000, of course, Ralph Nader ran as a third-party candidate who ended up siphoning enough votes from those who otherwise would have voted for Al Gore that Gore lost the general election to George Bush.  (Yes, I realize some voters cling to the belief that Gore still won the election, but at least under the recount methods proposed by Gore, it looks as if Bush would still have prevailed.)

My sense is that Al Gore inspired far more unity among Democrats and independents than Hillary Clinton does, and indeed, Gore had less political baggage.  At the same time, my sense is that John McCain inspires less distrust and dislike among Democrats and independents than George Bush did in 2000.  Thus, if some Democrats and independents were willing to throw their votes away and vote for Nader rather than Al Gore, there has to be a risk that they'd do the same when presented with a less politically attractive Democrat and a less feared/reviled Republican.

True, after eight years of President Bush, such Democrats and independents might be less willing to risk another Republican victory.  But it's got to be a risk that one should think about.

Full post as published by The Yin Blog on February 07, 2008 (boomark / email).