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Mitt Wins Michigan! and the State of the Race

I don't need to exhale with Romney's Michigan victory because Romney was doing great before Michigan. Especially if you chuck the media (and even candidate) driven expectations out the window and you look merely at what the candidates had accomplished during the first three primaries/caucus. I'm probably a little more sensitive to it as a Romney supporter, but holy cow, it seemed like every Michigan primary story characterized the Romney campaign as either floundering, devastated or dead and a Michigan victory as do or die time. I'll have to admit this kind of lazy analysis drives me a little batty. Before Michigan, the rest of the leaders of the field looked like:

Huckabee: 1^st in Iowa (17 delegates), No show in Wyoming, 3^rd in New Hampshire (1 delegate). (18 total delegates)

McCain: 4th(!) in Iowa (3), no show in Wyoming, 1^st in New Hampshire(7). (10 total delegates).

Thompson: 3^rd in Iowa (3), 2^nd in Wyoming (3), 5^th in New Hampshire (6 total delegates).

Gulinaini: 5^th in Iowa, no show in Wyoming, 4^th in New Hampshire (0 delegates)

Note: nobody has said that any of these four need to drop out out if there is a poor showing in Michigan. For some reason however, Romney had to. I just didn't get it and I still don't. Look at Mitt before Michigan:

Romney: 2^nd in Iowa (12 delegates), 1^st in Wyoming (8 delegates) 2^nd in New Hampshire (4 delegates). 24 pledged delegates.

Romney finished consistently higher than all of the other candidates and was the leader in delegates through the first three contests. How is that a floundering campaign? Sure he would have been in better shape if he had won all of the contests, but it's hardly do or die time. If he had come in second in Michigan, he probably would have trailed McCain in delegates, but 2^nd would have been another strong, consistent showing, and certainly would not have been the death knell to Romney's candidacy. Why are so many pundits so anxious to kill the Romney campaign?

Forecast

Obviously, Michigan helps Romney and will lessen (but not destroy) the 'Romney campaign is finished' crap. Equally obvious is that the nomination is not in the bag. However, Romney is in play in almost every freaking state. Here are some pre-Michigan polls for some of the upcoming pre-Super Tuesday states, these polls will skew more towards McCain and less towards Romney since it doesn't include Romney's Michigan triumph and includes McCain's post New Hampshire bounce. Even so, Romney has a real shot in these places:

- South Carolina, with the most dense evangelical (and anti-Mormon) community in the Union, Romney is 2% points behind 2^nd place Pastor Huckabee, though he is 11% behind first place McCain. I think a Romney win here is sort of a long shot (but not improbable), but I think he will (again) make a strong showing with either a second or close third finish.

- Florida: This state is really up for grabs. Depending on what happens in SC, anything can happen. Romney is in 3^rd right now; 5% behind Rudy and 7% behind McCain. With the victory in Michigan and strong showing in SC, it's very possible Romney could win. He'll definitely make a strong showing either way.

- I think Maine, Louisiana, and Hawaii have some primaries before Super Tuesday, but I couldn't find any recent polling data. Regardless of the outcome of South Carolina and Florida, Romney has the mojo to do well on Super Tuesday. I think he will do better than most pundits believe (the same calling for Romney's head), because I think most conservatives are a little nauseous at the prospect of Huckabee or McCain as the nominee (see below).

Full post as published by SoapBox Law on January 16, 2008 (boomark / email).