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What Next on the GOP Side?

By wt

Good analysis from Jonathan Martin here.

[T]here will be no coronation for John McCain. Successive wins in New Hampshire, Michigan and then South Carolina would have put him in an extraordinarily strong position to win the GOP nomination. But with Romney?s very solid victory, McCain's momentum has, at the very least, been slowed considerably.

Absolutely right.

My prediction is that Huckabee takes South Carolina now by a small margin over McCain. Nevada is up in the air but Romney has a good shot because of the Mormon vote and small turnout.

That means Florida is a dogfight. Each candidate has a case to make.

McCain has a NH win and 3 strong second-place finishes (Michigan, South Carolina, and Nevada).

Huckabee has wins in Iowa and South Carolina.

Romney has the most delegates and wins in Michigan and Nevada.

Giuliani has, well, everything, invested in Florida.

Whoever wins Florida should have some real momentum going into February 5th. And that's partly why it will tear up the field of GOP canidates.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on January 16, 2008 (boomark / email).