Election-Campaign Law

Presidential Election: Polls Update

By inelefi

Political markets: Who will win and how many will vote…

Mike and Thad have both mentioned political markets before.  With the election just a day away, they are worth looking at again:

As of Monday afternoon, Obama is trading at .92 on Iowa Electronic Markets,  .89 on Newsfutures.com, and .91 on Intrade.com.  While polls (pollster, fivethirtyeight) may show the race to be neck and neck, political markets often give more accurate predictions.

Beyond the presidential race, you can also look at state races, ballot initiatives (like CA’s Proposition 8 trading at 34.5 on Intrade), and even predictions on voter turnout.

Current predictions on voter turnout:

>50% 97.6

>55% 94.2

>60% 54.9

>65%   8.8

It will be interesting to see how accurate they are.  Then again, if you do not trust polls and markets, you can always follow the St. Petersburg barbershop poll.  The barbershop serves middle aged white professionals, and “[t]he poll hasn’t picked a Democrat since Lawton Chiles for governor [of FL] in 1990…It went against Clinton in 1996 and in ‘92.”  Not this year: Obama is up 112 to 87.  There seems to be a trend here…

Inés and Janell

Full post as published by Election Updates on November 03, 2008 (boomark / email).