International Law

Some comments on the US election

In a matter of hours Americans will go to the polls, bringing an end to one of the longest and most fascinating Presidential election campaigns in history.  It is an election that has captivated not just the US but the world.  The interest in Australia alone is unprecedented.  A large part of this interest stems from the expectation and hope that the US will finally reject George W Bush and his policies in the same way the rest of the world did five or so years ago.  However, the idea of a black President, especially one as charismatic and impressive as Barack Obama, is possibly even more exciting to the rest of the world than it is to most Americans.  There is a sense that when the polls close we will be watching history and we all want to be a part of that moment.

However, although most of my friends and colleagues are thrilled at the prospect of an Obama presidency and are busy predicting an Electoral College landslide, I cannot bring myself to blindly succumb to peer pressure and join that particular bandwagon.  If I could vote in the US Presidential election I would vote for John McCain.  However, I think that Barack Obama will become the next US President, although the margin will be considerably closer than many of the pundits are predicting.

Why I would vote for Senator John McCain

Let me begin by saying that this has not been an easy decision.  There is much to admire about Barack Obama and especially the campaign he has lead.  Nor do I agree with John McCain on all of the issues, especially social issues.  Indeed, I would consider myself to be a Democrat.  During the Democratic Primaries I strongly supported Hillary Clinton and was very disappointed when she did not secure the nomination.  Many of the reasons I supported Clinton over Obama still apply today when looking at McCain and Obama.  Further, on several of the big issues that matter to me, I prefer McCain's policies over that of Obama's.  So let me briefly explain the four main reasons that have resulted in my concluding that if I could vote, I would vote for Senator John McCain.

Experience.  Barack Obama has run a superb campaign, but that is all he has done in public life.  He has no major legislative accomplishments, no executive experience, no foreign policy experience and no history of working across the aisle with both Republicans and Democrats.  He is very bright and an extraordinarily gifted public speaker but that is not enough to convince me he is better equipped to be President than John McCain.  McCain has a long record of public service, outstanding foreign policy credentials, and a proven desire and capacity to work with both sides of politics, even when to do so have been unpopular within his own party.  McCain has demonstrated that he has the experience to be President.

(Some would counter this conclusion by arguing that Sarah Palin is not qualified to be President.  Yet if you believe that you would also have to believe that Barack Obama is similarly not qualified.) 

Iraq.  Barack Obama has repeatedly been wrong on the war in Iraq.  Hindsight suggests he was right to oppose going into Iraq in the first place (however if he had been in the US Senate at the time of the invasion I suspect he would have voted for it), but I believe it would disastrous to international peace and security if the US was suddenly withdraw from Iraq.  McCain has been right on this issue even when it was unpopular to do so - he proposed and supported the surge when the politically expedient thing to do was to advocate for immediate US withdrawal. In contrast Obama was wrong to oppose the surge and he has demonstrated a stubborn unwillingness to admit that he was wrong.  Therefore I have the confidence in McCain and not Obama to determine the appropriate role for the US in Iraq.

Trade. There are major differences between McCain and Obama on the issue of free trade.  McCain supports free trade and his voting record in the Senate reflects his commitment to trade liberalisation.  Obama on the other hand opposes NAFTA, CAFTA and does not have an ideological commitment to free trade.  As I believe that free trade is essential for future global prosperity, I find this stark difference between the two candidates a further reason to support McCain.

Campaign Finance.  There is no doubt that the role of money in the US political system has long had a corrupting influence.  McCain has been a long standing advocate for campaign finance reform.  Obama, however, has paid lip service to this issue by reneging on his promise to accept public funding, in the process effectively destroying the campaign finance framework in the US.  His decision to reject public funding was blatantly motivated by politics over principle and suggests he will not be the strong proponent of campaign finance reform that the US needs in the White House.

Obviously there are many other issues that are relevant to how a person decides to cast their vote.  And on many issues I would side with Obama.  Yet on the issues that matter most to me, McCain has the edge on every one of them.  Therefore if I could, I would cast my vote for Senator John McCain.

My predictions

Here are my predictions for the same categories as those used by the Washington Post's 14th Biennial Outlook Crystal Ball Contest:

Presidential Race (Electoral: Popular)

290 Obama    248 McCain

Senate

56 Democrats    42 Republicans    2 Others

House of Representatives

258 Democrats    177 Republicans

Minnesota Senate

Franken (D) 45%    Coleman (R) 41%    Barkley 14%

Mississippi Senate

Musgrove (D) 48%    Wicker (R) 52%

Tiebreakers

Who will win WA governor? By how many points?

Gregoire by 3 points

Who will carry NC? By how many points?

McCain by 1 point

Wildcard

Full post as published by Freedom to Differ on November 04, 2008 (boomark / email).