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Billy Packer's Election Analysis

By "Milbarge" and "Fitz-Hume"

This video is a clip from last spring's men's college basketball championship semi-final game. Kansas demolished North Carolina right out of the gate. When the Jayhawks took a 26-point lead around twelve and a half minutes in, Billy Packer, the long-time basketball analyst, declared flatly, "This game is over!"

Now, two interesting things happened after that moment. First, UNC staged a valiant comeback to get the lead down to four, but couldn't get over the hump. Kansas eventually pulled away to win handily. Second, it appeared that the network and its advertisers didn't appreciate Packer telling viewers they could change the channel. Packer won't be calling games any more.

I thought of Packer's Kinsley gaffe this morning when I read this New York Post story about how John McCain could still win the election. It's by Nate Silver of the wonderful web site FiveThirtyEight.com. The take-away is that, yes, there does appear to be a non-crazy path to victory for McCain, but (a) it's not too bloody likely even under optimal circumstances for McCain, and (b) pulling it off would require remarkable degrees of heretofore absent discipline and focus from the McCain campaign.

Part of Silver's plan would require, literally, hoping for the best in a few important states. What would have to happen for states to flip, more or less on their own, without heavy ad saturation or multiple candidate visits? One thing would be a general tide of national momentum. Like the Kansas-UNC game, I think we're going to see the national polls tighten up over the next week. It's possible that people in places like Florida and Indiana will see those numbers and think McCain is coming back, and will mobilize enough to surge McCain ahead in those toss-up states. I read a bit of the conservative blogosphere, though, and I don't see much enthusiasm or budding momentum.

The other big possibility is some kind of game-changing revelation, on the order of a war-on-terror development or Barack Obama channeling Eddie Murphy singing "Kill the White People." But for one thing, I'm not convinced that, at this point, voters would necessarily trust McCain over Obama in the event of something like a new bin Laden tape or some Iranian belligerence. And for another, Obama has already banked a ton of early votes, and those folks won't get a do-over no matter what happens.

Frankly, at this late date, I don't see an "October surprise" or the inevitable tightening of the polls having enough of an impact to change things where they really matter: the electoral college. McCain may well pull a lot closer in the national popular vote, but of course, that isn't how we elect our presidents. Any description of how McCain can win involves a whole lot of "if, then, maybe, possibly." Obama has many more ways to win.

Silver's latest projections give Obama a 97% chance of winning the electoral college. A week before Election Day, that's good enough for me. I'm ready to agree with TNR's Michael Crowley and Reason's David Weigel and Billy Packer and declare, "This game is over!"

Here's how I imagine the Republicans will re-group and calmly, rationally, sagely address the prospect of an Obama presidency (warning: one nsfw word):

Full post as published by Begging the Question on October 28, 2008 (boomark / email).