Immigration Law

THE FIRST 100 DAYS

By Greg Siskind

As Barack Obama continues to enjoy a wide lead in national opinion polls, a number of news organizations report that the Democrat is already planning for the transition including planning appointments and legislative strategy. While some may think this is presumptuous, it's actually incredibly responsible given the frightenting situation in the world right now. The new President will face enormous challenges and the more time spent preparing for the change in leadership, the better.

A great debate has been going on for some time within the Democratic Party regarding the timing of efforts to reform the immigration system. The party has reached general consensus that reform is needed and they agree on most of the details. But fear of anti-immigration groups and too many anti-immigrant Republicans were enough to block a bill. Some have even suggested that immigration reform be put off until 2012, the beginning of a second term for the new President.

It is time to put reticence aside and aggresively purse reform.

The first of the two problems I noted above has largely been addressed. There has been a dramatic altering in the place of immigration in public opinion over the last 12 months. Immigration is now only considered the most important issue facing America by less than 1% of the American public compared to 12% last year. The issue was the second most important issue in the minds of Americans in mid-2007 and today it is not even on the top 10 list. And this is very typical for America. During most periods, immigration is generally favored and not considered a pressing problem. The anti-immigrant frenzy of the last couple of years has echoed similar periods in US history and such brief periods are always followed by a return to normalcy.

In short, even if anti-immigant groups can work the phones and faxes, the Democrats and pro-immgration Republicans should know that public opinion is not behind these efforts. Pro-immigration groups need to be strong in making this point to individual members of Congress and present hard evidence to back up the claim.

As for the number of pro-immigrant members of Congress, there are more and more predictions that the Democrats will achieve substantially higher majorities in both Houses of Congress - possible as many as 60 Senate seats and more than 250 seats in the House of Representatives. These are large enough majorities to readily overcome minority opposition.

The time for pro-immigration groups to begin pushing for a rapid approval of a comprehensive immigration reform bll is NOW.  Congress should avoid the temptation to simply re-start long and drawn out hearings on the topic. They have held extensive hearings and debated at an extreme length the subject of immigration reform over the past several years and more talk is not going to produce a better result. Senator Obama needs to include immigration reform in his agenda for the first 100 days of his Administration and he should honor Senator McCain and Senator Kennedy by starting with their 2006 bill in the negotiation. Years of work have gone in to drafting that bill and there is no reason to re-invent the wheel.

Why is it so important to act now? First, unemployment will inevitably rise over the next year due to the financial crisis. And if world history and the history of our country are an indicator, many will inevitably start to blame immigrants and other minorities for our troubles. I hope this does not happen, but it is not a far-fetched fear. Better to deal with immigration when cooler heads are prevailing.

Second, Democrats are not likely to have as many members of Congress after the 2010 elections. For most of our recent history, a new President's party almost always loses seats in the first mid-term election. That means the prospects for immigration reform are not going to improve for as long as four more years. A President has a unique opportunity to pass significant legislation during the "honeymoon" of the first few months of his or her term in office, particularly when his party controls both houses in Congress. If Senator Obama is emphatic that immigration reform be in his initial legislative agenda, it has a real chance of passing.

Finally, if Senator Obama is reluctant to publicly commit to this, members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus should be vocal in demanding it. Hispanic voters are going to be a critical part of an Obama win and they are within their rights to expect a return on the investment of their support for the candidate. Recent public opinion polls are showing the Hispanics are giving McCain less than half of what they offered President Bush. This change ALONE will likely be the reason Senator Obama wins key battleground states like Nevada, Colorado, Florida and New Mexico.

I specifically call on Senator Menendez to push Senator Obama to make the commitment NOW to put immigration reform on his First 100 Days legislative agenda.  After the election, he won't have the same kind of clout on this issue unless the CHC is willing to use its numbers to block the rest of the new President's legislative agenda if he ignores immigration.

It will never be easier to pass immigration reform than the first 100 days of an Obama Administration and the time to start working to make sure that the Senator is committed to this is right now. There is an enormous opportunity and we cannot afford to waste it.

Full post as published by Greg Siskind's Blog on October 10, 2008 (boomark / email).