Miscellaneous

The Constitutional Impact of the Election

Almost all lawyers know the name Erwin Chemerinsky. That's because almost all lawyers prepare for the bar by taking classes with BarBri, and they therefore all wind up seeing a six-hour lecture by Chemerinsky, done entirely from memory, which is basically everything you need to know about con law. It's pretty impressive. Dude is smart, I'm saying.

So when he writes an article about the major impact the upcoming election could have on the make-up of the Supreme Court I, for one, pay attention. It boils down to this:

As a result of its current makeup, however, the Supreme Court is likely to tilt only in one direction after this year. Simply put, the November election may well determine whether the court becomes significantly more conservative or its ideological balance remains roughly the same. And a McCain-shaped Supreme Court, pushed farther to the right, could have dramatic and long-lasting consequences for the rights of Americans.

Even if Obama wins the election, it is far less likely that the Supreme Court will become more liberal in the near term. This is because any vacancies on the court between Jan. 20, 2009, and Jan. 20, 2013, are likely to come among the three most liberal justices. John Paul Stevens is 88 years old. Although he is in good health, it seems unlikely that he will still be on the court at age 93 in 2013. Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 75. Perhaps because she is frail in appearance there is always speculation that she might step down. There is a widely circulated rumor that David Souter (now 69) wants to retire and go home to New Hampshire.

Because I'm a liberal, I generally prefer the liberal justices to the conservatives. But frankly, I wouldn't want an entirely liberal bench. There is much to be said for a properly weighted bench that has voices covering the spectrum. But the notion of the Supremes getting more conservative, and the fact that it would likely keep that conservative bend for quite some time ... well that scares the crap outta me.

Anyway, for those of you trying to educate yourself about this election, Chemerinsky's article makes for a good read.

Full post as published by Quiz Law on October 07, 2008 (boomark / email).