Legal Commentary

Obama With Wide Lead Among Low Income Voters

By Big Tent Democrat

A new July 10-13 WaPo/Harvard poll shows Barack Obama with a wide lead among voters earning less than $30,000/yr, 58-28 (the 24% undecided is hard to explain). This is not unusual for the Democratic candidate for President - John Kerry won voters earning less than 15k/yr by 63-37 and those earning between 15 and 30k/yr 57-42. Jointly, these two income groups were 23% of the electorate in 2004. Obama's lead, according to WaPo, stems from "overwhelming support from two traditional Democratic constituencies: African Americans and Hispanics."

The finding that is attracting attention is Obama winning whites who earn less than 30k/year by 47-37. Some say this "knock[s] down the idea that Obama can't win the vote of White low-income workers." But that has never been the question. The question is can he win enough white working class voters (50k/year or less income being the traditional definition) to win the election. In case you missed it, John Kerry lost the election in 2004. I think Obama can and will win the election. Heck, I say he is a shoo-in. The question is this - is winning 47-37 now, with 16% undecided a good result? I do not know, but I think it is nothing to crow about.

More . . .

As I wrote, Obama is performing about at John Kerry levels for voters earning 30k/year or less. In 2004 the income segment of voters made up 23% of the vote. Voters making between 30k and 50k/yr, who are not part of this WaPo poll, constituted 22% of the electorate in 2004. Kerry split those voters right down the middle in 2004. In 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by 8 points in this income segment. In 2000, Al Gore split this income segment with George Bush. And it should go without saying, that Ronald Reagan dominated this segment in 1980 and 1984 as did George H.W. Bush

Of course, every vote counts the same and Bill Clinton did better than any Democrat in every income segment (except those earning under 15k/yr, the most consistently reliable Dem voters of any income group, where Clinton performed at the typical Dem level) since LBJ. But the big swing was in the 30k-50k group. I would love to see how Obama is doing in that income segment now. That would tell us something new.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on August 04, 2008 (boomark / email).