Legal Commentary

Obama's Futile Chase For "Values" Voters

By Big Tent Democrat

Amy Sullivan is at it again, urging, and in this case, cheering on, Obama's "reachout" to "values" voters. She thinks Obama has hit a home run. Strangely enough, an American Spectator writer agrees with her. But the funny thing is the data the Spectator writer relies upon simply does not support his assertions. For example, the Spectator writer states:

Polls still show that conservative Christians favor McCain, but Obama is faring better than Kerry did in 2004.

But the linked Pew poll does not say that at all. Indeed, Obama is faring worse with white evangelical and white non-hispanic Catholics than even John Kerry. More . .

Obama's outreach to "values" voters has been a total flop. Al Gore was getting 28% of white evangelicals in June 2000, according to Pew, Kerry got 26% in June 2004, according to Pew and Obama gets 25% according to Pew.

In terms of white Catholics, according to Pew, Kerry was receiving 47% of the vote in June 2004, Gore received 45% of the vote in 2000. Obama receives 40% now. Obama is running about even with Kerry (but well behind Gore) is so called white mainline voters (presumably non-Evangelical non-Catholics.)

The real story told by the Pew poll is that John McCain is not exciting the evangelical base the way George Bush did, running 8 points behind Bush's 2004 numbers. Conversely, McCain is doing better with white mainline voters than Bush did.

The bottom line is this - Obama's evangelical outreach has been a complete failure. His gains come from the mainstream, from Latinos and from increased African American support. Contrary to the tired propaganda from Amy Sullivan and the false histrionics from the American Spectator, the Evangelical "values" voters are not turning to Barack Obama at all. It is the non-Evangelical voter that is producing Barack Obama's lead in this election.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on July 28, 2008 (boomark / email).