Legal Commentary

The Commander In Chief Test

By Big Tent Democrat

The Washington Post has a new poll, but they are holding the topline numbers for release tomorrow I assume. Which makes for an interesting experiment. Today, WaPo released other results from the poll. On the commander in chief question (which is faulty imo for the reasons expressed in this dkos diary) produced the following results:

[72%] said McCain would make a good commander in chief. . . . Obama's [at] 48 percent[.]

The problematic question notwithstanding, it will be interesting to compare the topline presidential preference result with the C-i-C question results. If Obama holds a comfortable lead with that sizable a gap, it will be a bad sign for McCain having any chance of winning this election. More . . .

In the same poll, there is a strong indication that even if McCain holds an advantage on the Commander in Chief question, the specific question of Iraq blunts this advantage. 47% trust McCain on Iraq compared to Obama's 45%. No advantage for McCain on the biggest specific issue facing a future Commander in Chief.

Two other interesting findings, only 34% believe we have to "win the war in Iraq in order for the broader war on terrorism to be a success" while 51% believe winning the war in Afghanistan is essential to winning to "broader war on terrorism."

Thus the American People, according to this poll, have absorbed the essence of the Democratic critique of the Iraq Debacle - that it distracted us from the real war on terrorism, especially in Afghanistan. As the war in Afghanistan heats up, this central critique should regain center stage for Obama.

So when WaPo provides the Presidential preference numbers, we will be provided an important snapshot about the Presidential race and will get a real feel for whether McCain really has a chance in November. I am betting he does not.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on July 15, 2008 (boomark / email).