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Hillary's Popular Vote Lead

By Jeralyn

Now that the DNC has recognized the Florida and Michigan primaries by agreeing to seat all of their delegates, the party has to recognize the popular votes in those states. The elections are no longer "illegitimate." Flawed, perhaps, but illegitimate, no.

The way I see it, the DNC cannot change the numbers of votes cast the way it did delegates. These were certified state elections with firm vote totals. Barack Obama removed himself voluntarily from the ballot. Hillary has to be allotted her votes, and he has to accept the consequences of his action, which is that he gets none of the popular vote in Michigan.

As a result, by any count, Hillary Clinton now leads in the popular vote. From Real Clear Politics:

Total votes with Florida and Michigan:

• Hillary: 17,428,986
• Obama: 17,266,433
• Hillary leads by 162,553 votes

Total votes with Florida and Michigan and the caucus estimates for IA, WA, NV and ME:

• Hillary: 17,652,848
• Obama: 17,600,517
• Hillary leads by 52,331 votes

There are three contests left. Puerto Rico with 2 million registered voters, expects a turnout of about 500,000. Hillary is expected to win comfortably.

Montana, which allows Independents to vote, will likely go for Obama. South Dakota doesn't have as many voters as Montana, but should be a closer race.

If Hillary is ahead in the popular vote on June 3, there are a myriad of reasons for superdelegates to choose her over Barack Obama. Chief among them are her greater ability to win in November, particularly in the big swing states like Ohio and Florida; the electoral map that favors her; and the fact that she does so much better than Obama with older voters, rural voters, female voters and working class voters.

There are 200 uncommitted superdelegates, but any of those who have previously endorsed Obama are free to change their mind any time up until the Convention. Some may be persuaded to change their votes on June 4.

Neither Obama nor Hillary will have the necessary number of pledged delegates by June 3.

If Obama has not reached the magic number, now 2118, by June 3, there's no reason for the superdelegates to say his pledged delegate lead trumps her popular vote lead.

The point being, the media is fixated on pledged delegates but the superdelegates may not be. The pledged delegate count is one factor but not the deciding one. If neither candidate has attained the magic number, there is no rule that the pledged delegate total counts more than the popular vote total.

At least until the last vote is counted on June 3, this is still a two person race.

It's all up to the superdelegates now.

Comments now closed.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on June 01, 2008 (boomark / email).