Legal Commentary

Insider Advantage Poll: Hillary Takes Lead in N.C.

By Jeralyn

Update: The new Mason Dixon North Carolina poll has Obama up by 7 with a 5 point margin of error.

Where there is no competition is race. Eighty-seven percent of African Americans plan to vote for Obama, while 62 percent of whites said they will vote for Clinton. There has been very little evidence suggesting either candidate can cut into those numbers before Tuesday.

The poll found Obama does better on the war in Iraq but Hillary does better on the economy.

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A new Insider Advantage North Carolina poll of likely Democratic primary voters is out tonight. Hillary Clinton has pulled into the lead over Barack Obama.

• Hillary Clinton: 44%
• Barack Obama: 42%
• Undecided: 14%

IA says the shift comes from white voters over age 45. It also says Rev. Wright is a factor:

More...

However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina.

“If this white vote shift does not erode, given that North Carolina’s white Democratic voters are primarily in the Research Triangle, where education and personal finances are in the top tier for the nation, then I would say this suggests a major shift in all future primaries towards Clinton,” said Towery.

The actual poll results are here. (pdf)

Update: The poll was announced on Hannity and Colmes. Both the Insider Advantage and the Rasmussen pollster was on. The IA poll may have underestimated the African American vote. The IA pollster said Rev. Wright may cause Obama problems, but ultimately Obama should win NC but not by much.

The Rasmussen pollster said voters may doubt the sincerity of Obama's repudiation of Wright, thinking he did it for political reasons. The IA pollster said white voters have a problem with Wright's recent statement that he'll be back with Obama once Obama's in the White House.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 01, 2008 (boomark / email).