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Picking the Upsets in NCAA March Madness: ESPN has the Methodology

By Andis Kaulins

March Madness is beginning and every pundit worth his dunks will be prognosticating winners and losers of the upcoming college basketball games.

In this regard, Peter Keating of ESPN The Magazine has a landmark article in which he explains the methodology of picking upsets based on past NCAA tournaments, and they will be using this methodology this year in future reports.

Take a look at The return of Giant Killers: The secret to selecting NCAA tournament upsets....

One aspect about the play of underdogs beating much higher seeded teams is their willingness to take risks under the philosophy of high risks can equal high rewards. On the other hand, it can also lead to a team being blown out which ordinarily might be able to stay close, but not necessarily win with that conservative strategy.

Also of great interest in terms of being able to upset a higher seeded team is the criteria of team stats, e.g. the ability of a team to achieve "high 3-point scoring as a proportion of all points scored" and similar factors, which you can read about at the original article.

Full post as published by LawPundit on March 13, 2011 (boomark / email).