Politics

Is John McCain the new Bob Dole?

By Matt Cooper

John McCain won Florida but the race isn't over. The party isn't quite ready to rally around him and say goodbye to Mitt Romney. There are still lingering doubts about McCain among party conservatives. And Romney's delegate count continues to rise. It wouldn't take a big mistake for McCain to falter, a moment that reminds people of his age, like Bob Dole falling off a stage in 1996. There's no guarantee that McCain can walk to a coronation in Minneapolis.

That said, McCain found his victory tonight and will probably be the nominee. But he also found it because the others faltered. Thompson was a dud. Giuliani had to battle talk of mistresses in limos. Huckabee and McCain and Romney surged into the vacuum but Huckabee was a novelty candidate and Romney too craven even for politics. McCain is the front runner but he didn't get there by having a great message. I'll keep troops in Iraq for 100 years. I don't know much about economics. Neither is an inspirational banner to take into the fall against the likes of Barack Obama.

It helps that the media hates Romney and sees him as a flipflopper. They have a lot of reason to view him that way. But McCain's abandonment of fiscal conservatism is no less stunning a pirouette. McCain voted against the Bush tax cuts and now wants to make them permanent, forever. That's a flip flop. Yesterday, the Senator who courageously stood against his party and president on an idiotic gay marriage amendment to the constitution was rebuked by gay groups for robo calls that denounced Romney's claims back in 1994 that he was better on gay rights than his then senate opponent Ted Kennedy.

McCain muscled through with some of the ugliness once used against him. The congressmen and senators of Cuban descent brought the old guard out to give him good margins in Miami. The I-4 corridor was steady and the panhandle wasn't too unforgiving. Having an extremely popular governor helped McCain a lot too. Schwarznegger could join in next week, too. The party probably will rally around McCain, not certainly but likely.

There's much to admire about John McCain. When Mitt Romney chirped about doubling Gitmo, McCain denounced torture and noted that he had some experience with it. He actually believes in global warming. But this campaign hasn't been as refreshing as his 2000 bid and there is the profound possibility that he's another Bob Dole, an honorable, wounded veteran but a septuagenarian creature of Congress who will get whopped in the fall.

Full post as published by Portfolio.com: Capital on January 29, 2008 (boomark / email).