Legal Commentary

Zogby Predicts Obama Rout In California

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

And if Zogby is right, Barack Obama wins the nomination tonight, not on delegates, but on winning. [NOTE: I do not believe Zogby is an honest pollster, I believe he is a disingenuous pundit.]

Zogby has Obama winning by 13 points in California. If that happens, it is over. No spin. No excuses. Of course if Hillary wins by double digits, as SurveyUSA predicts, then I believe Hillary wins the nomination tonight also.

I know, I know, the race "goes on," but it will largely be over in either scenario imo. Of course, if it is neither scenario, we will have to look to the other states to see if tonight effectively ends the the race. And yes, I believe winning is more important than the exact delegate count tonight. No matter what the Media says.

More . . .

While Zogby tells us that Obama wins men (55-29) and women (45-42), Survey USA has Clinton winning women by 62-33. Also, Zogby hints that his polling has Latinos being a very narrow Clinton advantage while SurveyUSA has Latinos going big for Clinton by 67-31.

SurveyUSA's predicted turnout demos are also interesting. Survey USA expects Latinos to make up 26% of the electorate and African Americans to be only 9% (Obama wins the A-A vote 72-25.)

Finally Survey USA expects women to make up 57% of the electorate. Thus despite having Obama win men 54-39, Clinton's near 2-1 lead with women would garner Clinton a big victory.

The differences here are clear. Zogby expects Obama to do very well with women and Latinos. SurveyUSA does not.

Tonight will tell the tale.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 05, 2008 (boomark / email).