Legal Commentary

The VP Choice: Do No Harm

By Big Tent Democrat

Trapper John has an interesting post on how Barack Obama MIGHT be approaching his VP choice. Trapper's bottom line? Obama will choose the "do no harm" option. I suspect that is the thinking in the Obama camp and likely the McCain camp (though clearly McCain will be more likely to take a risk for some upside). Here's the problem I see with Trapper's analysis - it is impossible for any choice to not do some harm.

I know they do not like to hear this at daily kos, but the day Obama announces his VP and it is not Hillary Clinton, that will cause Obama harm. It may be unfair, it may be wrong, but it is a fact. (My own view is that picking Hillary Clinton clearly remains the best choice for Obama, both on the positive and negative side. Clinton's supporters will be energized, her fundraisers will work their heart out, the Clinton brand will help with voters on the issue of the economy, she has become a first rate campaigner, etc. But he will not pick her for reasons only Obama can and will have to explain.)

More . . .

The negative impact of not picking Clinton will be compounded if Obama picks a different woman. Oh I know that daily kos thinks that is outrageous. But it is. I think the Obama camp realizes that.

So who does that leave in my assessment? Three choices - Biden, Bayh and Kaine. Only one is a "reinforcing" pick - Tim Kaine. He is not a Washington figure. He can be sold as a "new" politics type. Biden and Bayh are longtime Washington figures. Of course, Kaine's stances on choice will be a big negative but Obama does not seem to care about that, as his own statements have proven.

Trapper posits that Obama won't pick Kaine because "[i]t's taken the Democratic party 40 years to get to the point where it's a majority party in Virginia -- I just can't see willingly handing over the governor's mansion to a Republican, even if it is for only one year." I doubt that will stop Obama. I think it is Kaine UNLESS Obama decides he needs "experience" in the VP slot.

Trapper proposes Tom Daschle as the "experience" choice. To me it would be stunning if he chose a lobbyist whose very image is Washington DC, who voted for the Iraq War, who is the very essence of "old style" Washington politics. I think and hope Daschle is absolutely not even possibly a pick.

Between Bayh and Biden, it is true that Biden is gaffe prone, but he is an effective attack dog with a resume that allows him to attack John McCain on foreign policy. If "experience," foreign policy and attack dog is what Obama decides he needs for his VP, I think Biden will be his choice.

If economic chops are the order of the day, there is only one name in Democratic politics that makes sense - Clinton. Since Obama does not want Clinton, he will convince himself he does not need economic chops from the VP.

My prediction? Tim Kaine. The "New" Politics prevails in the end.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on July 30, 2008 (boomark / email).