Legal Commentary

Rich Drives A Square Peg Into a Round Hole

By Big Tent Democrat

In arguing that Barack Obama is a shoo-in in November, Frank Rich makes a strange case:

[T]his isn’t 2004, and the fixation on that one demographic in the Clinton-Obama contest has obscured the big picture. The rise in black voters and young voters of all races in Democratic primaries is re-weighting the electorate. Look, for instance, at Ohio, the crucial swing state that Mr. Kerry lost by 119,000 votes four years ago. . . . Voters under 30 (up by some 245,000 voters) accounted for 16 percent, up from 9 in 2004. Those younger Ohio voters even showed up in larger numbers than the perennially reliable over-65 crowd.

If Rich had dug a little deeper into the exit poll numbers, he might have realized that Hillary Clinton split white voters 18-29 with Obama in Ohio. He might have learned that Clinton swamped Obama among white voters in every other age group. He might have learned that in Pennsylvania, Clinton won white voters 18-29 by 52-48. He might have learned that in Florida, Clinton won non-blacks 18-29 by 47-36. And so on. [More...]

The concern with Obama regarding white working class voters is focused in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. So far, there is not strong evidence that Obama will do better than Kerry in those states, "new voters" notwithstanding. The reality is Rich has to accept one or both of two things - Hillary Clinton has extraordinary appeal with these voters and/or Obama has troubles with them. The ostrich act ain't gonna cut it.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 11, 2008 (boomark / email).