Legal Commentary

Predicting Pennsylvania

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

It is still more than a month until the Pennsylvania primary, but what the heck, let's look at the demographics of Pennsylvania as compared to who voted in Ohio and other states.

More . . .

By my math, Hillary Clinton won about 64% of the non-African American vote in Ohio. African Americans were slightly less than 4% of her total votes. By contrast, Barack Obama won about one third of the non-African American vote. Even then, non white voters amounted to two thirds of Obama's vote. (Compare that to Mississippi where two thirds of Obama's votes came from African Americans.) Indeed, Obama garnered 26% of the white vote in Mississippi as compared to 34% of the white vote in Ohio (the difference largely stems from Clinton winning white Republicans in Mississippi and splitting them in Ohio.) Not that significant a difference, particularly among white Democrats, which were 70-23 in MS and 70-27 in Ohio. The demographics of Mississippi are what led to Obama's win.

It seems clear that if the Ohio result predicts Pennsylvania, Obama will get trounced. Indeed that is what SUSA predicts currently, Obama losing by 19 points, losing non-African Americans 61-29. If we adjust the SUSA number to match the Ohio exit polls (the adjustment primarily would be to up Obama's percentage of the A-A vote), the result would be about 60-40 Clinton. Thus, it seems fair imo to expect a Clinton win in Pennsylvania of at least 15 points.

Another possibility is a return to the Wisconsin model. In Wisconsin, Obama won among all whites 54-45 and African Americans 91-8. If this occurs, Obama wins Pennsylvania handily. The question is will Wisconsin or Ohio be a better model for Pennsylvania? Can Obama recapture his Wisconsin magic?

So I looked at another state, Missouri. Obama captured 39% of the white vote in Missouri and 84% of the African American vote. What can we learn from these three results?

Let's look more closely. In Ohio, Clinton won white Democrats handily but tied among Republicans, who are 99% white. Thus, Obama lost white Democrats in Ohio by 70-27, Mississippi numbers. In Missouri, Obama lost white Democrats by 62-35, won white Republicans by 75-21 and white independents by 59-37. To wit, white non-Democrats were nearly a third of Obama's vote in Missouri.

In Wisconsin, white Democrats voted for Hillary by 51-48, while white independents (26% of the vote) went for Obama 62-35 and white Republicans went for Obama by 72-28. Thus, nearly over a third of Obama's vote in Wisconsin was white non-Democrats.

As we all know, Pennsylvania is a closed primary. Only Democrats can vote in it. If Obama could somehow capture 48% of white Democrats, as he did in Wisconsin, he can narrowly win Pennsylvania. If he loses white Democrats 70-27, as he did in Ohio, he will lose Pennsylvania by 20 points.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on March 15, 2008 (boomark / email).