Legal Commentary

Obama's Problem With Older Voters

By Big Tent Democrat

Barack Obama's coalition of young voters, African Americans, and higher income white voters is apparently good enough to win the Democratic nomination. But will it win in November? Andrew Kohut discusses Obama's electoral deficiencies with older voters against John McCain:

Interestingly, older voters — many of whom supported Democrats over the years — seem reluctant to support Mr. Obama. Hillary Clinton has carried the vote of people over 65 in 26 primary elections. And looking forward to the general election, the national polls now show John McCain running better against Mr. Obama among this older age group — as well as among middle-aged voters and younger voters.

Furthermore, while Barack Obama’s appeal to young people coincides with their greater inclination to support Democrats, older voters do not show a greater allegiance to the Republican party that might explain their current voting intentions.

What Kohut is saying here is that it is not a question of older voters having more affinity for Republicans and John McCain. They seem not to like Barack Obama and his Movement. In many ways, that is not surprising. That triumphalism of the young voter, the seeming desire to sweep out the old could be taken personally by older voters. This may be a difficult needle for Obama to thread. More . . .

Kohut continues:

In a recent analysis, Pew’s Scott Keeter observed that while the current generation of young voters, who came of age during the George W. Bush years, is leading the way in giving the Democrats a wide advantage in party identification, no particular Republican trend is seen among older voters. . . . [O]verall today’s older voters’ partisan inclinations mirror the national average, which has been leaning Democratic.

This is about Barack Obama and his Movement for older voters, not the Democratic Party:

A look at recent Pew polls finds that the oldest and youngest blocs of voters come to very different personal judgments about Senators Obama and McCain. Fewer seniors, just 43 percent, hold a favorable view of Mr. Obama. Similarly, only 43 percent of voters under 30 have a positive personal view of Mr. McCain, well below his ratings among the rest of the electorate.

Unlike young and middle-aged voters, older voters appear far less captivated by the Obama persona. Many fewer of them say he is inspiring or down-to-earth, while more call him arrogant and hard to like.

. . . The personal and social resistance of older voters to the party’s likely nominee could well keep a Democrat out of the White House and reverse the nationwide Democratic trend.

I wonder what the Creative Class will think about that.

By Big Tent Democrat

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Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 10, 2008 (boomark / email).