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Obama Wins MS

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

CNN, no call on the race. Obama doing very well.

White vote - 73% Clinton, Obama 26%.

A-A vote - 90% Obama, 10% Clinton.

Turnout was almost 50/50 White-A-A. Projecting the exit poll, It will be 58-42. I expect on THIS demo breakdown, a 17-16 delegate split.

In the popular vote, if turnout was 150,000, Obama would win 87,000 to 63,000, or a net gain of 24,000 for Obama.

The first truly meaningful exit poll data has come out:

Blacks, who have supported Obama in overwhelming numbers in earlier primaries, accounted for roughly half the ballots cast in Mississippi, according to interviews with voters leaving polling places.

The expectation was for African American turnout to be 55 or 56%. With Obama expected to capture upwards of 80% of the African American vote, while gaining only a quarter of the non-black vote, this would augur for a closer race than expected.

Update [2008-3-11 19:45:41 by Big Tent Democrat]:I think tonight is a strange night. I think a campaign has made a mistake drawing focus on an issue and some statements that will not be helpful to their campaign and to the Democratic Party. I think the supporters of and the news network that supports that campaign are making a similar mistake. Especially in light of the results to come tonight. I am quite depressed about the whole thing.

Update(TL): Comments Now Closed.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on March 11, 2008 (boomark / email).