Legal Commentary

Why McCain is Losing the Battleground States

By Jeralyn

My view in a nutshell: Gov. Sarah Palin is the reason John McCain is behind in the polls in the battleground states. Yes, the issue on people's minds is the economy. Who would take a chance on having her in charge of economic policy if something happened to McCain?

There's not enough difference between McCain and Obama on the bailout bill. It's Palin that is killing him, particularly, I think, in Florida. No one except evangelicals want an evangelical with extremist views in the White House.

Even if Palin doesn't stumble tomorrow night, the debate won't help McCain .

Unless there's a huge terror or national security threat, areas in which McCain still outpolls Obama, he's history. And Palin sank him. [More...]

There's another reason McCain/Palin will lose, absent a huge terror or national security threat, and it's not the economy either. Obama's new voter registration drive has swung into high gear in the battleground states. Even Michelle was in Colorado today. Hollywood stars are flooding the college campuses this weekend.

Also consider that some polls, especially those that work off of voter registration lists, are less likely to reach newly registered voters. Other polls that work off of phone numbers miss those only with cell phones -- mainly the young.

I think Obama's lead is even greater than the poll numbers show.

But there are five weeks left to the election. McCain only has one hope left -- to make people afraid of Barack Obama. If he goes the personal attack route, things could change. Given early voting, even that might not be enough.

If we start seeing personal attack ads in the battleground states, it's a sign McCain knows it's just about over for him.

This race is now Obama's to lose and it's not because of the economy but because McCain has such terrible judgment. It's because people cannot understand the only two explanations that make sense: By putting such an unprepared and unqualified candidate like Sarah Palin on the ticket, either he sold out the country for his own ambition or has an enormous deficit in judgment when it comes to matters of importance.

People want change but they also want competence and confidence in their leaders. McCain/Palin fails miserably on both counts.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on October 01, 2008 (boomark / email).