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McCain is Maybe Possibly the Front Runner

By wt

Big win in South Carolina last night, such that McCain is the arguable front runner in the race now.

If McCain wins Florida I think the race is over. There will be a protest candidate if someone else can win a substantial number of Feb 5 states, but McCain will have the delegates he needs to win at the convention.

That is good news for McCain and the party.

On the other hand, if Giuliani wins Florida, the race is up in the air.

Going into Super Tuesday, McCain's momentum will be slowed in southern states so that Huckabee can take a few. Rudy's momentum will be going strong so that he can take NY, New Jersey, and maybe California. Romney can take a lot a of midwest states where he's got enough money to stay on the air alone. And McCain, of course, will win in some of the places where he's leading now.

Everything depends on Florida. Either it's over or it's a 4 man race without end in sight, where the likely result is a brokered convention in September.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on January 20, 2008 (boomark / email).