Legal Commentary

The Emerged Democratic Majority

By Big Tent Democrat

At the height of recent Republican dominance, 2002, Ruy Texeira and John Judis wrote a book titled The Emerging Democratic Majority. In the book, Texeira and Judis posited that, as Judis and Texeira wrote about the 2006 elections:

Just as important as these victories is who voted for Democrats in 2006. With few exceptions, the groups were exactly those that had begun trending Democratic in the 1990s and had contributed to Al Gore's popular-vote victory over George W. Bush in 2000. These groups, which we described in our 2002 book, The Emerging Democratic Majority, included women, professionals, and minorities. But in 2006 they also included two groups our book slighted or ignored altogether: younger voters (those born after 1977) and independents. These voters can generally be expected to continue backing Democrats.

The thesis forwarded by Judis and Texeira has been confirmed in this election. Women (56%), African Americans (95%), Latinos (66%), young voters (66% (among whites (54%)) and college graduates (53%) form the new Democratic majority. Older white voters remain Republican voters. And, as Texeira and Judis noted this has policy ramifications:

[T]he 2006 election represented a shift in American politics, away from the right and toward the center-left, on a range of issues that go well beyond the Iraq war, corruption, and competence. Voters in 2006 returned to viewpoints on the economy and society that inclined them, even leaving aside the war, to favor Democrats over conservative Republicans.

The 2008 exit polls show that the Emerged Democratic Majority is progressive and Democratic in its views on issues. 54% of the country agrees with Obama on the issues (50%) or think he is too conservative (4%). 63% disapprove of the Iraq War. Barack Obama won a majority vote on the issues of energy, Iraq, the economy, and health care.

The new Democratic majority is a progressive electorate. It wants Democratic and progressive change. The notion of a "Center Right" Beltway Agenda is not what they want. Democrats must respect this. If they choose to instead adopt a Broderite agenda, they will be voted out of office - not because the new Democratic majority will prefer Republican policy, but because they will conclude that Ralph Nader is right, there is no difference between the two parties.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on November 05, 2008 (boomark / email).