Legal Commentary

I speculated here just two weeks ago that a continuing primary campaign (at least through Pennsylvania) might be good for the Democrats.  But, reflecting on the recent racial issues and some new poll numbers out of PA, I am now thinking that the Democrats are now of the path to a permanent schism in the party.

Consider these PA data points as one reflects on the future of the Democratic party:

• White voters go with Clinton 61 - 33 percent; Black voters back Obama 76 - 18 percent
• Women back Clinton 59 - 35 percent; Men go 48 percent for Obama to 45 percent for Clinton
• Voters under 45 back Obama 57 - 39 percent, while voters over 45 back Clinton 60 - 34 percent

It seems likely that, especially after the events of the last few days, Senator Obama's strongest supporters ? Blacks and younger voters ? will be very disenchanted if Senator Clinton is the eventual nominee.  Whatever these realities mean for the 2008 general election, I think it means real trouble for the long-term future of the Democratic party.   

It is less clear to me whether Senator Clinton's strongest supporters ? White women and older voters ? will be very disenchanted if Senator Obama is the eventual nominee.  But even if they are only mildly disappointed, if their disappointment turns some of them into McCain Democrats, I think it means real trouble for the long-term future of the Democratic party.   

I have long resisted the conventional wisdom that the Obama-Clinton primary battle is a slow-moving train wreck.  But I am now starting to think that the wreckage is already visible and that the on-going battle really could destroy the (fragile?) modern Democratic Party.   

Since I have never been a huge fan of the modern Democratic Party (particularly as led by the Clintons), and because Prez. Bush has already partially destroyed the (fragile?) modern Republican Party, I am not deeply troubled by all these developments.   Moreover, these developments present a unique new opportunity for the emergence of a real third-party in the US (which I think would be a healthy development).  But what really amazes me is how much modern political realities have changed in the last three months, and especially over the last three weeks.