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Hillary's End Game

Word going around today is that Hillary can't overcome Obama on pledged delegates. It's been a general assumption; now it's practically a guarantee. Without a dramatic, game-changing event, Obama will end the Democratic primary race with more pledged delegates.

Most people says that means the superdelegates should fall in line behind him.

So does Hillary herself see a path to the nomination? The answer, clearly, is, "I guess."

Construct the scenario, assuming no Rezko scandals or additional Canada lies, for the next month and a half.

1. She loses narrowly in Wyoming and Mississippi. Not big enough to thwart her momentum
2. Obama doesn't have 50 SDs in the back of his pocket
3. She runs a good campaign in Pennsylvania. Pulls out a victory.

What then? She can't keep losing big and then winning small. There needs to be a momentum shift. And there doesn't seem to be one on the horizon.

Which makes me think she's going to do one of two things:

1. Waiting for the game-changing event that she can't even foresee right now.

2. When the event doesn't come, go NUCLEAR on Obama as a last ditch effort. Either it wins big or she destroys her own reputation.

Either way, I think this will be the most entertaining political season we will see in our life times. Enjoy it.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on March 05, 2008 (boomark / email).