Kentucky

When the filing deadline ended for the vacant Jefferson District Court Judge's seat, seventeen (17) names were headed for the ballot.

As a result of the timing of the nomination and appointment process, the deadline for withdrawing AND having your name off the ballot expired prior to the governor's appointment to fill the interim seat (or at least so I am told by a reliable source). 

Thus, only one name was withdrawn before the deadline,  with six (six) other candidates withdrawing thereafter. 

Now let's look at the numbers and the consequences this may have in this election.

17 - number of candidates filing

16 - number of candidates on the ballot

1   - number of candiates withdrawing timely

6  - number of candidates withdrawing after the deadline for being on the ballot

10 - NUMBER OF CANDIDATES IN THE RUNNING!

2   - number that will advance to the general election (top two)

Now let's look at the potential impact these number's play.

• Six candidates can potentially draw votes which render the tallies skewered.  Remember the judicial election a few years back when a challenger withdrew leaving the incumbent unopposed AND then some bad press surfaced that did NOT involved the incumbent but did involve a sheriff with a similar last name???  The result was the withdrawn challenger garnered the most votes, but lost because he was not in the race.
• 16 candidates can draw 6 per cent of the votes each with all things being equal (and they're not).  6 withdrawn candidates could siphon off one-third of the votes from the real candidates.  Leaving 70 percent of the votes left (and those voters are always much fewer than the eligible votes).
• Since this is a presidential primary, then there might be a 45 percent turnout.  This means that 70 percent of the 45 percent, or as few as 30 percent of the eligible voters could impact the judical races.  Click here for the statatistics from past elections and note
  • 2002 primary in Jefferson County had 17.9 % turnout or 103,715 of 447,936 registered voters.
  • 2004 general election (with contested presidential race) had 70.7% turnout with 336,562  of 475,805  registered voters.
  • Splitting the difference is where I came up with 45% as a guess.
  • Jefferson County's registered voters from the last election? 484,682.
• With 10 candidates and the top two advancing to the fall election, then the two who get a near majority are guaranteed locks. 
  • A candidate who has the support of 15 percent of the voters or around 50,000 could move to the next round.
  • All things being equal, then each candidate could garner just under 15,000 votes each if everyone else shares equally.

What does all this mean?  A widely dispersed field akin the Derby with the use of an auxiliary gate means that intangibles and irrelevancies may have more of an impact in the outcome  of this district court race than qualifications, merit and experience -

• The background noise of the contested Democratic presidential and senatorial primaries may obscure the judicial races.
• Ten candidates vying for attention might cause confusion.
• Six unnecessary names on the ballot from withdrawn candidates might add to the confusion.
• The usual confusion about the judicial races is always a problem (and forturnately not so much this year with only two contested judicial elections - the other is the circuit court race involving Judge Cunningham, Kemper, and Geunthner.
• What are the other intangibles?  Ballot placement, name recognition, gender, age, television and radio sound bites, organizational endorsements.

I suspect this election will provide some interesting anecdotal evidence of the impact of endorsements and ballot placement with the large number of withdrawn candidates.  Endorsements during elections with a small turnout potentially have a more significant impact (assuming the organization is able to rally the troops); and thus typically carry more weight in primaries than the general elections.

Time will tell.