Intellectual Property Law

You Ain?t Seen Nothing Yet

By Michael Scott

The growth of the Internet over the last 15 years has been nothing less than spectacular. Few could have imagined when the U.S. government open up the Internet to individuals and commercial interests that the Internet would be the catalyst for such enormous economic growth. Companies such as Amazon, Google and Facebook, which couldn?t have existed before the Internet, are household words today with capitalizations larger than the largest ?traditional? corporations of the 20th Century.

The Internet has become so embedded in most people?s daily lives that they find it noteworthy that they will be ?offline? for even a few days. They often post their concerns on Facebook, not knowing what problems being unplugged may cause them.

On a more macro scale, many industries are finding it increasingly difficult to survive in this ever-more-connected world. While the copyright industries blame piracy for their falling revenues, the real culprit is the fact that the Internet has changed the way in which people consume content. If online piracy ended tomorrow, that would give only a temporary blip in revenues for the movie and music industries. However, over the long term, traditional entertainment will see a continuing decline in revenues simply because people have many new ways in which to spend their free-time and disposable income.

If we are looking for a ?canary in a mineshaft? warning, just look at the publishing industry. The industry is in a free-fall. Borders UK has gone bankrupt, Barnes & Noble has put itself up for sale, independent bookstores are being shuttered at an enormous rate, and newspapers are closing their doors daily. The Federal Communications Commission is even talking about federal subsidizes for newspapers. Absurd, but true.

The fact is, if we haven?t reached the tipping point yet, we soon will. And when that happens, all the lawsuits in the world and all the government bailouts will do little to stem the tide of inevitable change. Those companies (and industries) that don?t adopt quickly will be swept aside to be replaced by new companies and industries that meet the needs of today?s (and tomorrow?s) consumers.

What those companies will look like, and how they will differ from existing organizations, no one can envision. Just like someone in 1980 would have been unable to even imagine companies like Facebook and Google, sitting here today, even the most savvy pundits are unlikely to be able to see what will take place over the next decade.

And as businesses and industries change, they will need lawyers who can help them chart a course through these massive changes. And that?s the good news for all of this.

Full post as published by Singularity on August 06, 2010 (boomark / email).