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: Greg Siskind's Blog

LATINO VOTERS EXPECTED TO HEAVILY FAVOR OBAMA

By Greg Siskind

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America's Voice has released this helpful chart to give folks an idea of what to look for when analyzing tomorrow's Latino vote. Polling for the past several weeks has shown McCain getting between 25% and 33% in most surveys, a substantial drop from 2004. Combined with the addition of three million new Latino voters, tomorrow could be a tough day for Senator McCain.

2004 Election Results in States with Large Latino Populations
State	2004 Presidential Result	2004 Presidential Result: Latinos	2004 Latino % of Electorate	2004 Latino Turnout #
AZ	55-44 Bush	43-56 Kerry	12%	269k
CA	45-54 Kerry	32-63 Kerry	21%	2.69m
CO	52-47 Bush	30-68 Kerry	8%	165k
FL	52-47 Bush	56-44 Bush	15%	1.11m
IL	44-55 Kerry	23-76 Kerry	8%	454k
NM	50-49 Bush	44-56 Kerry	32%	268k
NV	51-48 Bush	39-60 Kerry	10%	87k
NY	40-59 Kerry	24-75 Kerry	9%	693k
TX	61-38 Bush	49-50 Kerry	20%	1.59m
NATIONAL	51-48 Bush	44-53 Kerry	8%	7.6m

America's Voice also posted the Latino vote from the last three cycles: 1996 - Clinton 72% to Dole 21%; 2000 - Gore 62% to Bush 35%; 2004 - Kerry 56% to Bush 44%

Full post as published by Greg Siskind's Blog on November 04, 2008 (boomark / email).