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California Dreaming

By Earl Warren

Speaking of the tightening race in California, there's a host of polls out today showing what a lot of us have suspected for some time: California is a toss-up for the Dems. We've got Suffolk (Obama +1), Rasumussen (Obama +1), Reuters (Obama +4), and Mason-Dixon (Hillary +9). But perhaps the most interesting is the Field Poll, California's oldest and most reputable polling outfit. These guys know the state, and so when they say it's Hillary by two points, I think that's as good a snapshot as we've got. (With the caveat that this race is changing by the hour).

But buried within the cross-tabs of that 2-point Hillary lead are some incredibly good numbers for Obama.

First, the Field Poll estimates that 87% of the Democratic electorate will be composed of registered Democrats -- and only 13% will be decline-to-state voters. (These are the so-called "independents" who can choose to vote in the Dem primary (but not the GOP primary) if they request a ballot. Decline-to-states make up almost a third of California's registered voters). I and most everyone I talk to think the 13% number is wayyyyy low; you could see an 18, 20, or 22% independent share of the vote...and Obama wins that demographic by 22 points.

Second, the Field Poll has Hillary winning Latino voters by 52-19%. But Hillary will not, not, NOT win Latinos by 33 points. I can't stress this enough. I'll do naked back-flips through the courtyard if that happens (not that anyone would want to see that). As I've been trying to tell my DC journalism friends for months, the idea of some deep-seated black-Latino animosity in California -- or some deep-seated Latino loyalty to the Clintons -- is a figment of Newsweek's imagination. Latino voters on average tend to be less engaged in politics until much later in the process -- and so the earlier polls are a function of Hillary's name ID. As Obama does Spanish-language TV and radio, as Ted Kennedy and Oprah and other surrogates campaign in East LA, as Obama collects the endorsement of La Opinion, California's largest and most influential Spanish-language newspaper, those numbers will move. I still think Hillary will win the Latino vote -- probably by 15 or 20 points. But it won't be by 30...and that's worth a couple more points to Obama across the total electorate.

Full post as published by Nuts & Boalts on February 04, 2008 (boomark / email).