Federal Judiciary

Blanche: A Verb Meaning 'to Cook in Hot Water' -- By: Jim Geraghty

The quick read on Arkansas lieutenant governor Bill Halter?s bid for the U.S. Senate has been that Blanche Lincoln, one of the most endangered Democrats in the Senate, being caught as she is between the agenda of a liberal administration and the conservative electorate of her home state, will be forced to shift to the left in a bid to avoid a primary defeat.

But there are two hitches in that interpretation. First of all, Lincoln is reacting to the challenge by explicitly separating herself from the Democratic-party label -- which has seen better days in Arkansas. Second, for a progressive alternative, Halter doesn?t seem that eager to paint himself as more liberal than Lincoln on very many big issues.

Lincoln?s first ad would probably get applauded at any tea party. She mocks Congress as a bunch of children fighting and throwing money around, declaring, ?This is why I voted against giving more money to Wall Street, against the auto-company bailout, against the public-option health-care plan, and against the cap-and-trade bill that would have increased energy costs for Arkansans. None of those were right for Arkansas. Some in my party didn?t like it very much. But I approve this message because I don?t answer to my party. I answer to Arkansas.?

Halter has been endorsed by Daily Kos and MoveOn.org, and he?s supposed to be the answer to the prayers of grassroots liberals frustrated with Lincoln. But he doesn?t seem up to the role. For starters, here?s how he handled a question on the Holy Grail of the progressive grassroots, the public option: ?If you ask 100 Arkansans what the ?public option? means, they are going to give you 100 different answers. People don?t understand what that truly means.? He continued, ?I would be supportive of giving the public the option to voluntarily buy into a medical program like Medicare.#...#People are going to understand what that means more than just the two word phrase ?public option.??

Not exactly the full-throated rallying cry one might have expected. Then there?s card check, another key liberal priority where Lincoln has been shaky.

?As you know, the previous legislation that was labeled as ?card check,? it?s no longer on the table,? Halter said. ?The negotiations now have moved beyond that and have moved into a discussion of can we make elections occur more rapidly and how can we ensure that workers have a process where they have the ability to decide collectively for themselves how they want to be represented in negotiations.?

Then there?s Halter?s first ad. There?s something strange about it. No mention of the public option, no mention of the health-care bill, and it drips such anti-establishment folksiness that Sarah Palin would probably find little in it to quibble with.

(The ad is almost a carbon copy of one he ran in his bid for lieutenant governor in 2006.)

David Kinkade, a Little Rock-based political consultant who contributes to the blog The Arkansas Project initially thought that Lincoln had the skill, money, and infrastructure to withstand the Halter challenge. Now he?s beginning to wonder: ?The Lincoln camp?s initial response was less than inspiring. By Tuesday, Halter was up on the air with his first ad -- Lincoln didn?t follow until Thursday, allowing him two full days of advertising. This doesn?t sound like a big deal, I know, but there?s only about 60 days in the primary period, so it does matter. The Lincoln campaign looked like they were completely caught with their pants down, even though the Halter challenge has been lingering out there for months. So his first week has been fairly crisp and in control, while Lincoln just looks like she?s been flailing and reacting.?

Kinkade?s description of the Lincoln camp?s circumstances brings back echoes of other recent races where we?ve seen snake-bitten campaigns that just couldn?t seem to get out of their own way -- the campaigns of Martha Coakley, Creigh Deeds, Elizabeth Dole, and, arguably, John McCain.

?Lincoln?s campaign is already perilously close that line at which, whatever they do, it just ends up looking like they don?t know what they?re doing,? Kinkade said. ?The closest analogy I can think of is the 2008 Democratic presidential primary -- remember how Hillary Clinton hit that point where everything she did was just mocked, and they couldn?t do anything right? Lincoln?s kind of getting that feel to her.#...# I worked on Asa Hutchinson?s campaign for governor here in Arkansas in 2006, and it happened to us, too, though quite a bit later. It?s like being in a hole you can?t climb out of.#...#I?m still not at the point where I?d bet on Lincoln losing the primary. But, boy, they sure are acting like they want to.?

Perhaps Lincoln will prove too slow-footed to emerge from the primary. But if she falters, it will be tough to argue that it was an insufficiently liberal voting record that spelled her doom. The fact that Halter isn?t explicitly running to the left reflects that, although Arkansas has plenty of Democrats, it doesn?t have that many liberals. (In 2008, only 36 percent of Democratic primary voters identified themselves as ?liberal.?) It certainly doesn?t have that many voters who are enamored with President Obama and his agenda; he lost the primary 70 percent to 26 percent, the general 59 percent to 39 percent. These days, Obama?s approval rating there is in the neighborhood of 38 percent -- which may be why the president?s ?you?ve got me? declaration failed to reassure Rep. Marion Berry, a seven-term House member from northeastern Arkansas. Shortly after Obama declared that his campaign-trail prowess would ensure that 2010 didn?t turn into another 1994 GOP tsunami, Berry announced his retirement.

Former president Bill Clinton is backing Lincoln; Emily?s List is backing Halter; even in a year with a political mood friendlier to liberals, it wouldn?t be hard to determine which of those two has more sway among Arkansas Democrats.

Despite liberal enthusiasm for the recent primary challenger, it appears to be the wrong state, the wrong issue environment, and the wrong year for a challenge from the left. If Lincoln emerges from the primary, she will still face a tough reelection fight against the Republican, most likely either U.S. Rep. John Boozman or state Senator Gilbert Baker. But the day after the primary, the newspaper headlines in Arkansas will probably declare: ?Halter Topped.?

-- Jim Geraghty writes the Campaign Spot on NRO. 

Full post as published by Bench Memos - National Review Online on March 08, 2010 (boomark / email).