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Q4 GDP Revised to 5.9%

By Anonymous

The headline GDP number was revised up to 5.9% annualized growth in Q4 (from 5.7%), however most of the improvement in the revision came from changes in private inventories. Excluding inventory changes, GDP would have been revised down to around 1.9% from 2.2%.

This table shows the changes from the "advance estimate" to the "second estimate" for several key categories:

	Advance	Second Estimate
GDP	5.7%	5.9%
PCE	2.0%	1.7%
Residential Investment	5.7%	5.0%
Structures	-15.4%	-13.9%
Equipment & Software	13.3%	18.2%

Note that PCE and Residential Investment (RI) - the two leading categories - were both revised down in Q4.

Changes in private inventories are transitory (only lasts a few quarters at the start of a recovery), and although the headline number was revised up, final demand was weaker than in the advance estimate.

Full post as published by Calculated Risk on February 26, 2010 (boomark / email).