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: Conglomerate

Recession Silver Linings

By Gordon Smith, Christine, Hurt, Vic Fleischer, Fred Tung, Lisa Fairfax, David Zaring

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So, it's official that we are in a recession, but I feel oddly conflicted about this.  I have more job security than most, being tenured, etc., but I know there's something going on in those 401(k) and 529 plan statements that keep coming in the mail that's pretty bad.  But, I'm not retiring or sending anyone to college soon, so I'm keeping an optimistic outlook.  But the paper is all about people being laid off, fired, losing insurance, and generally being very vulnerable to the economic downturn and its ripple effects.

So, in the spirit of counting blessings, here are some of the silver linings out there, if silver linings count for much in a zero-sum game:

1.  The holidays seem to be 30-50% off the regular retail price.  If you're buying anything full price this year and it's not hot off the manufacturing floor, then you're not trying hard enough.  Every day I get an email from one of my favorite retailers telling me that I can save 30% off everything for 3 days only.  Then, in three days, I get another email telling me the same thing.  And I don't have to go anywhere at 4 a.m. to get that deal.

2.  Shipping seems to be free.  Again, if you're paying to have anything shipped, it better get there tomorrow or you're not trying hard enough.  Every day I get a "free shipping, today only!" email.  Then I get another one the next day.

3.  If I wanted to buy a house (and hopefully I don't own one already), I might soon be able to lock in at 4.5%.  (??!!??).  Yes, that's not much of a bargain today as Treasuries seem to be paying slightly above zero percent interest, but in 10 years or so, someone will be arbitraging quite nicely (hopefully).  Yes, I understand that first-time buyers might just prefer to let the prices fall instead of having prices propped up by easy financing, but you can't ask for everything in this mixed bag, I guess. 

So, the recession may be bad if you're my parents, who might like to retire sooner rather than later, but if you're in your mid-20s, have a job, and want to buy a house and maybe a lot of home electronics this Christmas, you're in luck!

Also, this seems to be the perfect economic environment to get everyone interested in a radical rethinking of the holidays, like The Advent Conspiracy.  (Watch the video -- if you aren't moved, then your heart is at least 2 1/2 sizes too small.)

Full post as published by Conglomerate on December 08, 2008 (boomark / email).

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